Black Friday Ad Costs: What Will CPM Be This Year?

What is CPM, and why do Black Friday ad costs spike?

CPM (cost per mille) is the price you pay for 1,000 ad impressions. The formula is:

If you spend $200 and get 10,000 impressions, your CPM is $20.

Most digital ads are sold in auctions. Each time a person opens an app or a page, the platform runs an auction for that impression. The price depends on how many advertisers want that person and how much each will pay. On Black Friday and Cyber Monday, retail and ecommerce brands raise budgets at once, so the auctions get crowded and the price per impression goes up. Your ad did not change. The competition did.

That is why Black Friday ad costs are best understood as a demand problem, not a platform decision.

Black Friday key dates for advertisers

How Black Friday CPM changed in recent years

Meta (Facebook and Instagram)

Tinuiti analyzed Meta campaigns, mostly from retail and ecommerce brands, during the 2024 Cyber Five. CPM was up at least 11 percent year over year on every day from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, with the largest increase (16 percent) on Thanksgiving Day itself. Across all five days, CPM rose 12 percent year over year. The year before, the same five days had grown only 3 percent.

Instagram timing

Strike Social compared 2024 Instagram impression-based ads across the season. Halloween week was about 18 percent more efficient than the peak Thanksgiving and Black Friday weeks. Starting before the rush gave advertisers cheaper impressions.

YouTube

The same Strike Social analysis found YouTube click costs nearly doubled during Thanksgiving and Black Friday week, a sign of fierce competition for video placements.

Retail media (Amazon ads)

Pacvue's review of Cyber Monday 2023 on Amazon found Sponsored Brands CPC up 30 percent compared with the previous year, while Sponsored Products CPC rose 10 percent. This is cost per click on a different platform, so it is not a CPM figure, but it shows how crowded Cyber Monday placements get.

Black Friday Facebook ads cost: the monthly pattern in the U.S.

Superads tracks U.S. Facebook CPMs across all industries. Its figures show the seasonal shape clearly:

• 2025 started at $20.41.
• November 2025 was the high of the year at $28.09.
• Q4 2025 averaged $25.49, about 15 percent above Q3 and 22 percent above Q1.
• January 2026 fell to $17.12, the low point of the 13-month window.
• The 13-month average was $22.20.

Shopify reports a lower number, $16.06, as the average Facebook CPM for November 2025. The gap is normal. Different sources use different methods (median versus average), cover different industries and countries, and track different campaign types. Use these figures to understand the direction and size of the seasonal swing, then check your own Ads Manager history for your real baseline.

Which industries pay more on Black Friday?

CPM is not the same across sectors. A 2023 Ecommerce Fastlane analysis of Facebook ads found health and wellness CPM was about 88 percent above the overall Q4 average, while fashion and apparel ran about 11 percent below it. This is older data, so treat it as a reminder that your niche matters more than any headline average. If you sell in a crowded category, expect to pay more.

Black Friday CPM forecast: planning scenarios

These are planning assumptions based on past patterns, not predictions. Suppose your October CPM is $16 and your budget is $3,000:

A 30 percent CPM rise cuts your reach by almost a quarter at the same budget. Run your own numbers in the free CPM calculator.

When should you start your Black Friday ads?

Strike Social suggests thinking about the season in three phases, and it is a useful frame:

1. Early audience building (late October to mid-November): Impressions are cheaper, so test creative, collect data and grow retargeting audiences.
2. High-intent conversion peak (Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday): Competition and cost per impression are highest. Focus on people who already know your brand.
3. Post-Cyber Monday retargeting (December): Gift shoppers keep buying. Retarget visitors and cart abandoners.

How to prepare your Black Friday ad budget

1. Pull your own October CPM from Ads Manager for each platform.
2. Add a seasonal buffer of 15 to 25 percent for Cyber Week, more if you are in a crowded niche.
3. Calculate impressions and clicks with the formulas in our Q4 ad budget guide.
4. Reserve 20 to 30 percent of budget for retargeting after the peak.
5. Set daily caps so one expensive hour does not use your whole spend.
6. Prepare creative now. Fresh ads win cheaper impressions than tired ones.

Black Friday ad costs by platform: what to expect this year

Every platform prices Cyber Week a little differently. Here is how the data reviewed above maps to each channel. All figures are third-party estimates, so use them as direction, not as quotes.

Meta (Facebook and Instagram). This is where the seasonal swing is easiest to see. Tinuiti measured Meta CPM up 12 percent year over year across the 2024 Cyber Five, and Superads' U.S. data shows November 2025 as the most expensive month of the year. If you buy retail or ecommerce audiences on Meta, this is the channel where a seasonal buffer matters most.

TikTok. Most current sources place TikTok CPM between $4.20 and $9.00, and one 2025 dataset named December the priciest month. TikTok is cheaper per thousand impressions than Meta in most published comparisons, but your creative has to look native to the feed. Spark Ads, which promote existing creator posts, averaged $3.54 against a $4.73 platform average in one dataset.

YouTube. Standard video CPM averages about $9.29 in a large study, and Shorts sit near $4. Strike Social found YouTube click costs nearly doubled during Thanksgiving and Black Friday week in 2024, so video advertisers should expect a sharper jump in cost per click than in cost per impression.

Google Display and programmatic. Display is the cheapest major inventory at about $3.12 CPM on average. Because low-priced clicks can also convert less often, Display can work as a low-cost retargeting layer during Cyber Week rather than as your only cold-audience channel.

Amazon ads. Pacvue's review of Cyber Monday 2023 found Sponsored Brands CPC up 30 percent and Sponsored Products CPC up 10 percent year over year. If you sell on Amazon, budget for higher click costs on the same days.

LinkedIn. B2B advertisers pay a premium all year, with an average CPM of about $33.80 in Q1 2026. Black Friday is a consumer shopping event, so B2B audiences may feel less direct pressure from it, but check your own account before assuming so.

For a fuller table of ranges, see our Q4 CPM benchmarks by platform.

A week-by-week Black Friday ad calendar

Black Friday is November 27, so the useful planning window is short. Use this calendar as a starting point and adjust it to your own sales dates.

Example: spreading $3,000 across the season instead of the peak

Here is why timing matters, using the planning CPMs from the forecast table above. These are assumptions for illustration, not measured prices.

If you spent the full $3,000 at the peak CPM of $19.20, you would get 156,250 impressions. Spreading the budget buys about 7 percent more impressions, roughly 11,600 extra. Peak impressions can still be worth more because shoppers are closer to buying, which is why the plan keeps the largest share for Cyber Week. The point is not to avoid the peak, but to stop paying peak prices for every impression.

How to monitor your ad costs during Cyber Week

Check three numbers every morning and compare them with the plan you wrote in advance, not with last week:

1. CPM against your planning range. If it lands inside your +10 to +30 percent band, nothing is wrong. If it jumps past the top of the band, check whether your audience is too narrow or your creative is stale.
2. Cost per sale against your break-even. CPM alone does not tell you whether a campaign works. Divide spend by orders and compare it with the profit each order earns.
3. Spend pace. Divide daily spend by daily budget. A campaign that uses its budget by noon at a high CPM may need a lower daily cap or a wider audience.

A simple rule you can adopt: if CPM is high but cost per sale still beats break-even, keep spending. If both are high, move budget to retargeting, refresh creative or pause the weakest ad sets. Decide these rules before Thanksgiving, when you are calm and not watching spend climb.

If you earn from ads: what Black Friday means for publishers

Everything above is written from the advertiser's side, but the same demand also reaches website owners who sell ad space. When advertisers raise budgets in Q4, publishers can see higher earnings per thousand pageviews (RPM). The size of the lift depends on your ad network, your audience's country, your niche and your ad layout, so compare your own Q3 and Q4 reports instead of expecting a fixed percentage. A fast site with ads that load properly gets more out of the season than a slow one.

Common Black Friday ad budgeting mistakes

Plan your budget with a free tool

Enter your spend and expected CPM into the free CPM calculator to see how many impressions you can buy. For platform-by-platform ranges, read our Q4 CPM benchmarks. To understand why costs climb, see Why Are CPMs So High in Q4?.

Black Friday ad cost glossary

• CPM (cost per mille): the price of 1,000 ad impressions.
• CPC (cost per click): the price of one click, equal to CPM ÷ (CTR × 1,000).
• CTR (click-through rate): clicks divided by impressions.
• CPA (cost per acquisition): spend divided by sales or leads.
• ROAS (return on ad spend): revenue divided by ad spend.
• Cyber Five: the five days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday.
• Retargeting: ads shown to people who already visited your site or engaged with your brand.
• Frequency: the average number of times one person sees your ad.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much do ads cost on Black Friday?

There is no single price. U.S. Facebook CPM in November 2025 was about $28 in one dataset and about $16 in another. Your cost depends on industry, audience, objective and creative.

Is CPM always higher on Black Friday?

Usually yes for retail and ecommerce audiences, because more brands bid at once. Niches with little holiday demand may see smaller increases.

When is the cheapest time to advertise before Black Friday?

Late October and early November have historically been cheaper than Thanksgiving week. Instagram impression ads in Halloween week were about 18 percent more efficient than the peak weeks in 2024.

Does a higher CPM mean worse results?

Not necessarily. Shoppers are closer to buying during Cyber Week, so conversion rates can offset higher impression costs. Judge campaigns by cost per sale and return on ad spend.

Do ad costs drop right after Cyber Monday?

Not immediately. December gift shopping keeps demand high, and costs usually fall more clearly in January.

What CPM should I assume for Black Friday?

Start with your own October CPM and add 10 to 30 percent as a planning range, then adjust once real data comes in.

Related guides

• Q4 CPM Benchmarks by Platform: Meta, TikTok, YouTube
• Cyber Monday Ad Budget Calculator: How Many Impressions?
• How to Calculate Your Q4 Ad Budget (Free CPM Calculator)
• Why Are CPMs So High in Q4? (And How to Lower Them)